Allan Lichtman

Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House: A Closer Look

Introduction

Allan Lichtman is a political scientist who has accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984 using a system he developed called the 13 Keys to the White House. His system is based on the idea that there are 13 key factors that can be used to predict the outcome of an election.

The 13 Keys

The 13 Keys are as follows:

1. Party mandate: Does the incumbent party have a mandate from the electorate?
2. Incumbency: Is the incumbent president seeking re-election?
3. Third party: Is there a strong third party candidate in the race?
4. Short-term economy: Is the economy doing well in the short term?
5. Long-term economy: Is the economy doing well in the long term?
6. Policy change: Has there been a major policy change in the past year?
7. Social unrest: Is there any social unrest in the country?
8. Scandal: Has there been any scandal involving the incumbent president?
9. Foreign/military failure: Has there been any major foreign or military failure?
10. Foreign/military success: Has there been any major foreign or military success?
11. Incumbency advantage: Does the incumbent president have an advantage in the race?
12. Challenger strength: Is the challenger a strong candidate?
13. Campaign issues: Are the issues in the campaign favorable to the incumbent president?

How the Keys Work

Lichtman assigns a value of either 1 or 0 to each of the 13 Keys. A 1 indicates that the factor is favorable to the incumbent president, while a 0 indicates that the factor is unfavorable. The total score for the 13 Keys is then used to predict the winner of the election. A score of 6 or more indicates that the incumbent president is likely to win, while a score of 5 or less indicates that the challenger is likely to win.

Lichtman’s Predictions

Lichtman has used the 13 Keys to predict the winner of every presidential election since 1984. He has correctly predicted the winner in all 13 elections, including the 2016 election, when he predicted that Donald Trump would win. Lichtman’s predictions have been praised by many for their accuracy. However, some critics have argued that the 13 Keys are too simplistic and that they do not take into account all of the factors that can affect the outcome of an election. Despite the criticism, Lichtman’s 13 Keys remain a popular tool for predicting the winner of presidential elections.

Conclusion

Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House is a system that has been used to accurately predict the winner of every presidential election since 1984. The system is based on the idea that there are 13 key factors that can be used to predict the outcome of an election.